Embarassing Biya Landmarks: 25k jobs.

From "rigueur et moralisation" to "le Cameroun des grands ambitions" through "democratie avancee", Biya's landamrks are tall in pomposity but pale and embarrassing (for those who care) in reality. Mr Paul Biya's policy gurus, and speech writers, have showed reckless abandon of modesty and restraint to coerce Cameroonians into believing that we "need" a washed-out-near-octogenarian for President after a 29-year malaise waiting for "le bout du tunnel" (another Biyaism). To pull off such an extraordinary feat, they have leaned on the virtues of a gullible, greedy, power-hungry, hungry, alcohol-prone populace who care about one thing only: get into the civil service and swindle as much money as possible.

When we were children, our neighbors had an abandoned car in the front of their house, a Simca, and we would play in the carcass of the car and pretend that we were driving, going fast, zooming through the dusty streets of Tsinga (back in the 70s), hooting and insulting other drivers like we've seen drivers do. Some days, in a foul mien, my friend would push us away from the empty frame: "get out of my father's car", he would say. The reality is despite the vividness of our imagination, we never went anywhere. Biya's policies are no different from the abandoned frame of a car. Today, other than a study in contrast, it is plain cynicism to have "rigueur et moralization" and "Cameroon government" in one sentence. Believe it or not, "rigor and moralization" the theme song of the 80s in Cameroon. The mention of this extinct mantra provokes amusement now. This dictatorship has itched many times for things it wasn't or was ill-prepared to scratch for. This has resulted in many embarassing landmarks, one of which we'll stay on today: 25k jobs.

The 25,000 embarrassment.

As is the tendency for an overworked man (13 years older than Bill Clinton who retired ten years ago) who loves la dolce vita, President Paul Biya of Cameroon traveled (early in February this year) to Switzerland where he spends at least 3 months out of 12 to relax and spend some time with his children who attend schools there. It is there that a team of journalists followed him later to record his message to the Cameroonian youth. In his recorded message played on the eve of Cameroon's National Youth Day, the President of the Republic announced that he was going to employ 25,000 young people into the public service. I know, that same overinflated public sector!

Somewhere in New York, Paris, London, and a few other cities that represent Cameroon's creditor nations, forks must have fallen from the healthy fingers of those responsible for Cameroon's loans. That's why after a review mission in Cameroon, the IMF, World Bank and ADB could not tame their discontent with the way the banana plantation has been managed ( read article here). I know I will be concerned if I loaned money to someone who instead of paying me back increases his/her expenditures, dimming the prospects of me recovering my money. Elsewhere, parishioners of the Biya congregation were elated to rapture-like frenzy.

Beyond this insouciant whim in announcing/creating 25,000 jobs in an economy as fragile as Cameroon is the reality of the 64,000 dollars question that begs to be asked: "How will 25k jobs be paid for?" It is not vexing enough that economic analysts, journalists, and political junkies in Cameroon, have been systematically and dramatically quiet as to the validity or feasibility of employing 25,000 people, it is sickening that Cameroonians believe this to a near-infantile gullibility.

The Math.

25,000 jobs, will require an increase in the budget of Cameroon. By how much? Let's take the salary yours truly earned in 1994 as a category A2 worker as our point of departure: 70060 francs CFA. Let's add 4,940 as a gesture of magnanimity (we can make things up too! ) and to make for easy calculation. 25,000 x 75,000=1,850,000,000. I will round that number off to 2Billion CFA (approx. US$4million). Now, multiply that by 12 months and you get 24 Billion CFA (approx. US$48 million)! Yes, a whopping 24 billion to blindfold the Cameroonian youth into believeing that after 29 years, Mr. Paul Biya is still relevant to Cameroon. I know some of you are saying, but what if we can afford it? Well, then, no problem: but we can't. Cameroon's budget for the current fiscal year stands at 2,571 billion CFA francs in 2011 up by 1 billion from 2,570 billion CFA Francs in 2010. This means the 25k jobs will expand the very tight budget by 1% and the operating expenses by almost 2%. A scenario, a very likely one, is that the government could just employ crookery and hire "some" people, not 25k, not 15k, just "some'. Enough to make some news and win the elections in 2011. We will never know how many people were actually recruited because there are no control and verification mechanisms available to the public to scrutinize the processes of the government hence checking it.

Recruit reduce and retire.

The government can recruit 25k, reduce salaries (it has been done before with no impunity) for those in the public service and retire as many people as will not raise eyebrows. It can also reduce the standards of living of those who earn income now (you can't take away anything from someone who has nothing!) by higher taxes on things like fuel, licenses, and other economic activity sectors. Those taxes are in turn trasferred to consumers who are at the end of the cycle. Cameroonians will not notice this subtle reduction in their standards of living (besides, mendicity is a lifestyle we are accustomed to in Cameroon). No one will say anything even if this were to be noticed. The pain of paying of salaries is further exacerbated by the dilemma (I think) of paying for pending presidential elections and I don't mean what you and I know: printing of paper, paying staff, etc. No, not that kind of cost. I mean how much money to give to the polling officers to sign off on the pre-prepared election results of the various polling stations around the country. It also needs to figure out how to repay some overzealous campaigners, some of whom blackmail their own people to vote for Paul Biya while they harness the harvest for the benefit their immediate families. The numbers increase daily. Presently we are at 60 ministers, who knows, we might just be the first country (?) to hit a hundred ministers.

Recruit and transfer costs. Mr. Biya and his cronies can decide to recruit their 25k and transfer the costs to the future generation by borrowing more money. The current budget allocates about 14.5% to the repayment of debts or shall we say to the payment of interests on loans the government of Cameroon has taken to pay for its opulence. My guess is we will find less lenders and eventually there will be a salary cut, yes a third one.

Recruit, recoup and vamoose.

Mr. Biya could recruit his 25k people, collect the money that the poor job seekers each pay to officialise their applications (certified true copies, stamps, etc). Think about it, if 100.000 people apply and they all buy stamps @ 5,000 each, that will make a whopping 500 million CFA francs. Some have projected the figure to about 1billion CFA francs. This money could be used to oil the fraud machinery of the CPDM party in the event where their "natural" candidate decides to run. If he doesn't it could be a good retirement change that will come in handy to protect the other money already stashed in real estate and bank accounts.

The other side of the equation.

Mr. Biya's gift or election purchase, or however you want to look at it, of 25k jobs does not come without worries of its own. Let me impress you with some figures: unemployment in Cameroon is currently estimated at between 20 and 40%, depending on who you want to believe. Underemployment (those making 50,000 francs CFA and below) is estimated at about 50%. The recruitment of 25k people runs parrallel to the disgruntlement of about 75,000 others. These people will have lost money (some considerable amounts through bribes) and eventually land no job. Their frustration will only go to fuel the latent disgruntlement that they have been nursing for a while now. There are also some older people who are too old to apply and even too old to be young through the system of false birth certificates. These groups of people will equally have a beef to grind with Mr. Biya for provoking their haplessness.

Another promise?

Well, why not? It will not be the first time, nor the last that the CPDM will make bogus and embarrassing promises. What matters is the clapping, the motions of support that a certain minister decribes as a scientific method of measuring the Presidents popularity (if he only knew what many people think about his God...!). Yes, Mr. Biya can promise another recruitment, but who will he fool, again?

Do you know of any particular Biya embarassment that you want discussed, make a suggestion and share your thoughts. Errance mentale also welcomes contributions.

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